GridPane's 2022 Year in Review

Patrick’s 2023 Predictions

Inspired by Kyle from the Admin Bar I’ve decided to put together a random smattering of predictions for 2023.

I feel like everything we accomplished this year speaks for itself. I continue to be utterly humbled by every single person on my team and everything that they do, day in and day out.

I’m looking forward to 2023. I’ve never been as excited about GP and this community as I am right now. And it only grows every single day.

So, without further delay, my 2023 predictions, in no particular order:

• I predict that there will be intensifying consolidation within the wider WordPress ecosystem. That consolidation will come from primarily two channels: massive hosting companies and Awesome Motive.
• AI tools like ChatGPT will raise the bar on all kinds of things that were previously done poorly by suboptimal people for the job. Get much much better at what you do, and get there QUICKLY.
• TRUE thought leadership will become much MUCH more important over the coming years. Thought regurgitation/curation will wither on the vine. Stop reposting other people’s Simple Simon shit. We all have the same news feed.
• Lowest common denominator content will have way less impact going forward. What worked for GaryVee for the last five years (“Just work your face off!”) isn’t gonna work going forward.
• You’re gonna need to have a real opinion and a unique perspective in order to break through the rapidly expanding noise.
• Shitty listicles and “The Death of WordPress” Youtubers will watch their audiences shrink. More and more people will become aware that much of what they’re being shown within the web/WP/hosting space is actually being peddled to them by people with misaligned incentives.
• We won’t see AGI within the next fives years, so certainly not within the next 12 months. But by the time GPT-4 drops the vast majority of the population won’t be able to tell the difference. The evidence of this is already very clear given how many supposedly intelligent people are already worried about what ChatGPT can do today. It’s a parlor trick, everybody. It’s a very impressive parlor trick, but a trick none the less.
• Try not to be overly fooled. If you dig deep enough you’ll find the edges. You’ll also find LOTS of ways that it can benefit you, no matter what you do in life, business, the world.
• Attention will continue to be the primary currency across all media, but “buyer sophistication” will go up across the board. So if you sell to intelligent business owners, be prepared for them to level up. Lead that charge for them and you’ll win.
• The economy is going to do a ton of completely crazy shit, none of which will be based around realistic macroeconomic causes and effects. The billionaires and VC funds are all too fine with the idea of watching things burn for the next year so that they can buy cheap in Q3/Q4.
• Average VC valuations will be significantly discounted for at least the next 3 to 5 years. But this will not impact that 80/20 of the 80/20. The Adam Neumann’s of the world will still get eye watering sums of money with shitty ideas written on bar napkins.
• Sam Altman will become THE CEO to watch in ’23. Sorry Elon. We’re all burned out on you.
• Everyone who doesn’t already have one will start a side hustle. This will be both good and bad. Strive to be amazing (which is better than your current best) and solve real problems for real people and if you stick at it long enough you’ll likely find something worth sticking at forever.
• If you’re a Jack of All Trades today you’re gonna want to fix that. Because vanilla and “tastes like chicken” isn’t going to be nearly as impressive a year from now. This reality will be significantly magnified the closer you are to tech. And the opposite will be true if you operate far away from tech.
• A handyman that shows up consistently and helps save people time will have a comfy six figure lifestyle business for a LONG time to come.
• The thing that we thought the robots would do first will be the job that gets replaced last. The jobs we thought it would never replace (creativity) are already being shaken up.
• Celebrities and influencers will continue to have outsized gains but the bar will go up. Everybody is flashing their ass these days, so get your squats in.
• AI is going to be a forcing effect on almost all aspects of life from here on out, even if all it does it creates a shitload of noise. Being able to generate high quality signals will become one of the most powerful forms of value creation.
• Finally: we’re here for a good time, not a long time. Significant change (looking back 12 months from now much happier/healthier/wealthier) will come as a byproduct of hundreds of repeated decisions.

So get TF after it.